Why John McCain Will Lose The 2008 Election

As I type this blog entry, it is around 10:00 AM on Election Day morning. The polls are open, and we are still many hours away from knowing the election results.


While Barack Obama has held a slight lead over John McCain in recent weeks, John McCain's poll numbers have been surging over the last few days. Some people believe that John McCain will come out ahead and win this election. I predict that John McCain will lose.


Barack Obama has run an overall positive campaign which has provided a vision and a direction for the United States. I am not saying that I agree with Obama's message and vision, only that it is there. In contrast, John McCain has run a weak and inept campaign that has lacked any real vision. His campaign reminds me much of Bob Dole's 1996 campaign where he lost by double digits to Bill Clinton.


Bob Dole and John McCain have much in common. They are both veterans and war heroes who were both injured in war. They were both 72 years old on Election Day. In essence, they were both walking cadavers who lacked any real enthusiasm in their campaign messages.


Bob Dole claimed that he would cut taxes. He wasn't believable because he had voted for tax increases in the past. During the presidential debates he sounded flat, flaccid, and bored. During the recent presidential debates between John McCain and Barack Obama, John McCain sounded ineffective and unconvincing, based on his own past record.


John McCain claims he will cut spending and veto any earmarks. His past record in the Senate shows otherwise. He recently voted for the bailout boondoggle which was loaded with earmarks.


He pushed the McCain-Feingold legislation down our throats. This legislation was the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform or BCRA law which is a direct violation of the First Amendment of the US Constitution.


He supports the McCain-Lieberman bill which will ban gun sales at gun shows without a background check. Thus he has utter contempt for the Second Amendment. The NRA gave him a C- rating. Yes Obama's NRA rating is an F. But it isn't enough of a difference to convince enough voters to support McCain.


He strongly supported the unconstitutional Patriot Act as well as its recent renewal. He flip-flopped like John Kerry in that he opposed the Bush tax cuts before he supported them.


The point is that voters have not forgotten John McCain's past, so they view his current claims with healthy skepticism. Simply put, he isn't resonating with enough voters to push him to victory over Barack Obama.


In 2004, John Kerry ran a negative campaign against George W. Bush. John Kerry offered no message of hope, no vision, no direction, only negativity and criticism of Bush. Granted, most Democrat voters didn't like having John Kerry as their candidate, so their mantra during the 2004 campaign was "Anyone but Bush." Democrat voters weren't voting for John Kerry. They were voting solely against George W. Bush. That was their sole aim and message. And it backfired.


Likewise in this campaign, most Republican voters decry having John McCain as their nominee, as he has no real vision, so their mantra is "Anyone but Obama." "I don't like McCain, but I must vote for him to thwart Obama." Like the Democrats in 2004, Republicans are not voting for John McCain. They are voting against Barack Obama. Once again, this motive for voting is a vote based on negativity. Campaigns based mainly on negativity simply don't work.


John McCain will lose today's election for these two reasons. His message isn't credible based on his past record, just like Bob Dole in 1996. And his Republican voters are voting not for him but against his opponent. These strategies will not work. They will not push John McCain to victory. The race will still be razor-close, but Barack Obama will still squeak out a victory tonight.


If my prediction is wrong, it won't be my first time. On May 17, 2007, almost a year and a half ago, I wrote a blog wherein I predicted that Mitt Romney and Al Gore would be the two main nominees and that Al Gore would win the election. If John McCain does manage to win tonight, I believe it will be because enough voters will have voted for Sarah Palin in essence.